← intel-index

OC RESEARCH WORKSHEET

A tool for figuring out how to use our two levers · Updated 2026-05-29 with verified source data · Every fact below is linked to where you can verify it

Why this page exists. We have two levers: how we spend scope, and how we allocate members to roles. This worksheet collects the data we need to push them well. Earlier OC pages made claims without sources; this one labels every cell with where the number came from.

Sources we use, with verification links:

KB = local knowledge base file kb/02_oc_2_verified_data.md (operator-curated, March 2026)
TP = tornprobability.com:3000/api/GetRoleWeights — community-maintained crowdsourced role weights. Click to verify; returns JSON.
API = Live pull from Torn v2 API via NEXUS's app.torn_client.TornClient — faction crimes, item market prices. Snapshot timestamps noted per row.
BD = Board direction in Discord (named, dated)
403 = Source attempted but requires authentication (Torn wiki, Torn forums)

If you see a number without a source tag, that's a bug. Tell BigTasty.

What sources said when I checked them

TornProbability API — https://tornprobability.com:3000/api/GetRoleWeights
Reachable, returned 28 OC scenarios with full role weights. Cross-verified against KB: BtB matches, BFtP matches, and Fox12_'s CP + WoO numbers match TP within 1% on every role. This source is solid for weights.

Torn API /v2/faction/9305/crimes
Live access via our API key. Pulled 100 most recent completed crimes (planning + completed + recruiting). Yielded real success rates and payouts at current sample sizes for every active scenario.

Torn API /v2/torn/items + /v2/market/{id}/itemmarket
Reachable. Current market prices for every OC consumable and every WoO reward item are now in the worksheet.

Torn wiki — wiki.torn.com/wiki/Organized_Crimes · wiki.torn.com/wiki/Scope
403 Forbidden from this host. Probably needs logged-in Torn session. A board member with a browser can grab pages and paste them as a follow-up; we'll fold them in.

Torn forums — e.g. megathread 16428538 (Allenone)
403 Forbidden unauthenticated. Same workaround.

Lever 1 — How we spend our scope

Scope mechanics

Cap

100 scope max — anything above is lost

Daily regen

+1 scope per day, automatic; lost if you're at cap when it ticks

Tier-4 spawn cost

4 scope to spawn one tier-4 group

Spawn distribution

Random across the 4 active T4 scenarios (BtB, BFtP, CP, WoO). You can pick the tier-group; not the specific crime.

Scope returned on T4 success

Returns more than it cost (net positive); exact yield amount not yet pinned — needs wiki / forum confirm

BD/403

Yield when crime expires unfilled

No source we can hit — needs wiki / board confirm

tbd

Lower-tier (T1–T3) spawn cost

unknown — needs wiki / board confirm

tbd

What the EV numbers (below) imply for Lever 1

All 4 T4 crimes are net-positive cash machines at current item prices. The mix matters: BtB makes 6.7× more per attempt than WoO. Whether to spawn more T4 depends on whether you'd rather risk a low-EV WoO than waste regen sitting at cap. Answer needs scope-return rate confirmed first.

Lever 2 — How we allocate members to roles

Role weights — now fully sourced and cross-verified

Every weight below was cross-checked against the TornProbability API. The 4 main crimes' weights match the KB (BtB, BFtP) and match Fox12_'s board values (CP, WoO) within 1% on every role. Click the source link to verify any row.

Break the BankL8 · 6 roles · 6-day timer · API + TP

Role	Tier	Weight (TP)	Min CPR	Source
Muscle 3	MAJOR	31.65%	70	KB · TP
Thief 2	MAJOR	29.10%	70	KB · TP
Muscle 1	CORE	13.52%	50	KB · TP
Robber	CORE	12.70%	50	KB · TP
Muscle 2	CORE	10.10%	50	KB · TP
Thief 1	RECON	2.93%	—	KB · TP

Blast from the PastL7 · 6 roles · 6-day timer · API + TP

Role	Tier	Weight (TP)	Min CPR	Source
Muscle	MAJOR	34.59%	75 *	KB · TP
Engineer	MAJOR	24.02%	80	KB · TP
Bomber	CORE	15.62%	60	KB · TP
Hacker	CORE	12.06%	60	KB · TP
Picklock 1	CORE	10.85%	60	KB · TP
Picklock 2	RECON	2.87%	—	KB · TP

* BFtP Muscle min CPR was lowered from 80 → 75 by BigTasty420 (KB §2). Engineer kept at 80.

Clinical PrecisionL8 · 4 roles · timer unknown · TP

Role	Tier	Weight (TP)	Min CPR	Source
Imitator	MAJOR	43.32%	75	BD · TP match
Cleaner	CORE	21.69%	50	BD · TP match
Cat Burglar	CORE	18.94%	50	BD · TP match
Assassin	CORE	16.06%	50	BD · TP match

Fox12_'s working values (Discord 2026-05-29) cross-verify against TornProbability. CP weights are now independently confirmed.

Window of OpportunityL7 · 5 roles · API + TP

Role	Tier	Weight (TP)	Min CPR	Source
Looter 2	MAJOR	25.80%	80	BD · TP match
Muscle 1	MAJOR	23.09%	80	BD · TP match
Looter 1	CORE	19.54%	60	BD · TP match
Muscle 2	CORE	17.01%	55	BD · TP match
Engineer	CORE	14.55%	50	BD · TP match

Confirmed via API (L7, 5 slots) and cross-verified vs TornProbability.

Other crimes — weights from TornProbability (catalog, partial coverage)

TP returned weights for these too. We don't yet have payout / CPR-floor / item data on most of them, so they're listed for reference. Heaviest role bolded per crime.

Crime (TP key)	Roles	Heaviest role
StageFright	6	Sniper 46.30% · Muscle1 20.01 · Enforcer 15.67
StackingTheDeck	4	Imitator 48.17% · Hacker 25.44 · CatBurglar 23.43
SneakyGitGrab	4	Pickpocket 50.83% · Imitator 17.54
BiddingWar	6	Robber3 31.67% · Robber2 22.87 · Bomber2 17.97
CounterOffer	5	Robber 35.95% · Engineer 28.39
AceInTheHole	5	Hacker 28.34% · Muscle2 24.65 · Imitator 21.08
LeaveNoTrace	3	Imitator 36.86% · Negotiator 34.13
ManifestCruelty	4	Reviver 46.27% · Interrogator 23.49
BestOfTheLot	4	Muscle 43.68% · Picklock 20.73
CashMeIfYouCan	3	Thief1 54.18% · Thief2 28.04
SmokeAndWingMirrors	4	CarThief 50.90% · Imitator 27.11
FirstAidAndAbet	3	Pickpocket 43.23% · Decoy 30.73
HoneyTrap	3	Muscle2 42.15% · Muscle1 30.87
GaslightTheWay	6	Imitator3 41.32% · Imitator2 27.46
MarketForces	5	Enforcer 29.40% · Negotiator 27.23 · Muscle 22.55
SnowBlind	4	Hustler 48.41% · Imitator 34.57
PluckingTheLotusPetal	4	Muscle 47.90% · Robber2 23.68
GoneFission	5	Hijacker 24.94% / Imitator 24.94 (tied)
CraneReaction	6	Sniper 40.74% · Lookout 16.62
GuardianAngels	3	Hustler 42.10% · Engineer 30.49
NoReserve	3	Techie 38.37% · Engineer 31.12
MobMentality	4	Looter1 33.97% · Looter2 26.49
PetProject	3	Picklock 36.44% · Muscle 32.63
ThouShaltNotSteal	3	Picklock 49.75% · Pickpocket 37.86

Fallback rule for unlisted crimes (Fox 2026-05-29)

For any crime not in TornProbability, or any Level 1 crime: highest-weight role uses 80% CPR and each next role drops 5%. So 80 / 75 / 70 / 65… BD

Item market — current prices (live snapshot)

Pulled from Torn API /v2/torn/items on 2026-05-29. Prices fluctuate daily; numbers below are a snapshot, not a forecast. Each item links to its Torn item page.

OC consumables (burn per success)

Item	ID	Market price	Used in
Zip Ties	1429	$2,627	BtB, BFtP
Syringe	1094	$546	CP
Floor Cleaner	1277	$1,879	WoO
Razor Wire	1259	$16,090	WoO
Blood Bag : Irradiated	1012	$30,478	CP
Core Drill	1431	$89,661	BFtP
Shaped Charge	1430	$137,161	BFtP
Chloroform	576	$424,717	CP
Firewalk Virus	103	$4,293,674	BFtP

OC reusables (one-time stockup, amortizes across all uses)

Item	ID	Market price	Used in
Hand Drill	1331	$673	BtB
Wire Cutters	981	$1,548	WoO
Ladder	980	$5,941	WoO
Angle Grinder	1509	$299,470	WoO

WoO reward items (paid out instead of cash)

Item	ID	Market price
Priceless Painting	1508	$66,000,000
Shabti Sculpture	458	$16,200,000
Companion Script : Ali	457	$11,537,500
Companion Script : Abdullah	455	$11,433,332
Companion Script : Ubay	456	$10,933,330
Ganesha Sculpture	453	$7,811,077
Vairocana Buddha Sculpture	454	$3,360,935
Naval Cutlass	615	$0 (no listings)

Firewalk update vs the old page

The retired oc-gameplan.html called Firewalk Virus "the permanent penalty" at ~$22M each. Today's market shows it at $4.29M, confirming Fox's "dropped to ~$5M after WoO release" within the noise. The BFtP tax is now small enough that the item burn is a rounding error on the gross payout.

Crime catalog — observed performance (last 100 completed)

Live pull from /v2/faction/9305/crimes?cat=completed on 2026-05-29. Sample sizes are per crime in the n column.

Break the Bank

Tier / Level

T4 · L8

API

Members per run

API

Timer

6 days

Sample size

n = 24 completed

API

Success rate

87% (21 / 24)

API

Avg gross payout (success)

$284,229,952

API

Item burn (per success)

Zip Ties × 2 = $5,254

API · KB

Avg net payout

≈ $284,224,698 (item burn negligible)

derived

EV per attempt

$247,275,367 (87% × $284.2M)

derived

EV per member-slot

≈ $41.2M

derived

Blast from the Past

Tier / Level

T4 · L7

API

Members per run

API

Timer

6 days

Sample size

n = 19 completed

API

Success rate

84% (16 / 19)

API

Avg gross payout (success)

$126,047,437

API

Item burn (per success)

Zip Ties × 1 + Core Drill × 1 + Shaped Charge × 1 + Firewalk Virus × 1
= $2,627 + $89,661 + $137,161 + $4,293,674 = $4,523,123

API · KB

Avg net payout

≈ $121,524,314

derived

EV per attempt

$102,080,424 (84% × $121.5M)

derived

EV per member-slot

≈ $17.0M

derived

Note: it's unclear whether item burn applies on failures too (need wiki/board confirm). If yes, drop the EV by another ~$700K.

Clinical Precision

Tier / Level

T4 · L8

API

Members per run

API

Timer

not surfaced by API endpoint we checked

tbd

Sample size

n = 22 completed

API

Success rate

54% (12 / 22)

API

Avg gross payout (success)

$91,797,250

API

Item burn (per success)

Syringe + Chloroform + Blood Bag : Irradiated
= $546 + $424,717 + $30,478 = $455,741

API · KB

Avg net payout

≈ $91,341,509

derived

EV per attempt

$49,824,503 (54% × $91.3M)

derived

EV per member-slot

≈ $12.5M

derived

CP problem

54% success on 22 runs is a real signal. The Imitator MAJOR is 43.3% weight at a 75 CPR floor — that's a heavy bet on one role. Whether the floor should rise, or whether this is just variance, needs follow-up. This is by far the worst T4 success rate at the per-member level.

Window of Opportunity

Tier / Level

T4 · L7

API

Members per run

API

Timer

not surfaced

tbd

Sample size

n = 24 completed

API

Success rate

50% (12 / 24)

API

Pays in

Items (Painting + 0–2 sculpture/script variants), not cash

API

Avg payout value (current market)

$73,682,684 across 12 successes; range $21.9M – $98.4M

API · derived

Item burn (per success)

Razor Wire + Floor Cleaner = $17,969 (+ one-time reusable stockup $306,959)

API · KB

Avg net payout

≈ $73,664,715

derived

EV per attempt

$36,832,357 (50% × $73.7M)

derived

EV per member-slot

≈ $7.4M

derived

WoO variance is real

12 successes ranged from $21.9M (just Companion Scripts, no Painting) to $98.4M (Painting + Shabti × 2). The Painting (id 1508, $66M) shows up in ~83% of successes but missing it cuts the run to ~$22M. Variance > signal at this sample size.

Lower-tier crimes we ran (smaller samples)

Crime	Level	Slots	n	Success	Avg payout
Cash Me if You Can	2	3	3	100%	$1,551,666
Best of the Lot	2	4	2	100%	items
Thou Shalt Not Steal	2	3	1	100%	$1,340,000
First Aid and Abet	1	3	3	100%	items
Mob Mentality	1	4	2	100%	$972,000

L1–L2 crimes at 100% in tiny samples. Possibly useful as recon filler; can't tell if their scope cost zeros out from this data.

Computed EV — what the data implies (so far)

EV = success_rate × net_payout (net of consumables). All numbers from our last-100 sample at current market prices.

Crime	Success	Net payout (success)	EV / attempt	Slots	EV / slot
Break the Bank	87%	$284.2M	$247.3M	6	$41.2M
Blast from the Past	84%	$121.5M	$102.1M	6	$17.0M
Clinical Precision	54%	$91.3M	$49.8M	4	$12.5M
Window of Opportunity	50%	$73.7M	$36.8M	5	$7.4M

What this informs (does NOT decide)

Per-attempt ordering: BtB > BFtP > CP > WoO. Lines up with Fox12_'s priority order from the forum post. So does per-slot: BtB returns 5.6× per slot vs WoO.

But the choice "which to spawn" isn't direct — spawns are random across the four. The data informs fill priority for individual members deciding which open slot to join; it does not yet inform spawn discipline. That requires the scope-mechanics confirmation that's still tbd.

Open questions — what's still missing

Scope return on success — KB says "more than it cost"; we need the exact number to model lever-1. Comes from wiki / forum (both 403'd here) or board confirmation.
Expiry behavior — what happens to scope when a recruiting crime hits its expiry without filling. Same source need.
Lower-tier spawn cost — do T1–T3 spawns cost scope? Same source need.
Item burn on failure — does the consumable cost apply only on success, or every attempt? Affects BFtP EV by ~$700K per attempt.
WoO variance characterization — 24 samples isn't enough to characterize the Painting-vs-no-Painting distribution. Suggest pulling the full crime history (~300+ samples back).
CP success rate root cause — 54% on n=22 is real. Whether to raise the Imitator floor above 75, or whether the failures cluster around a specific roster gap, needs deeper analysis.
CrimeHub direct access — TornProbability is a community mirror; the upstream CrimeHub might have additional metadata. Source link crimeshub-2b4b0.firebaseapp.com for the board to check.

Sources used in this page:

· TornProbability API — https://tornprobability.com:3000/api/GetRoleWeights · all 4 T4 role weight tables verified against this independent source. Citation found in Fox12_ Discord 2026-05-29 ("we use this to determine the roles for the tier 7 and 8 crimes we run").

· Torn v2 API — pulled live via NEXUS's app.torn_client.TornClient on 2026-05-29: /v2/faction/9305/crimes (planning + completed, last 100), /v2/torn/items (catalog with market prices), /v2/market/{id}/itemmarket (live listings).

· kb/02_oc_2_verified_data.md — operator-curated March 2026 snapshot. Source for BtB and BFtP weight verification, payout ranges ($266-371M / $100-175M historical), CPR thresholds, and the explicit "NEXUS must never invent weights" rule.

· Board direction (Discord 2026-05-29): Fox12_ on CPR tables, Firewalk price drop, items-are-free rule, priority order, spawn mechanics; BigTasty420 on two-lever framing, scope cap + regen, "fine to leave undone".

· Sources attempted but unreachable: Torn wiki and Torn forums both return 403 to unauthenticated requests from this host. A board member with a logged-in session can paste threads we'd cite (Allenone megathread 16428538 for forum context; wiki.torn.com/wiki/Organized_Crimes for canonical mechanics).

WORKSHEET. DATA SOURCED. END OF LINE.